Vawlei Geopolitics kong a rel huammi caah Muko (September) Magzine ah ka țialmi ‘Cold war II le Covid hnu lei Vawlei cuanhning’
By : Salai Pa Hmun, Australia
Cold War I cu World War II (voi 2 nak Vawlei pi ral) a dih hnu ah Liberal Democracy a dirpi mi USA le Communist Russia nih hruai mi Soviet Union hna an i dokalh nak, zuamcawhnak cu President Ronald Reagan le Soviet Prime Minister Mikhail Gorbachev lungtling biachah nak in 1989 ah Berlin wall an theh (tear down) hnu in officially a dih.
A kih mi ral i do nak (Cold War) cu aa ral mi ram hna kar lakah ‘Chaw lehnak, ramkhel, ralkap thazang, hriamnam le ramkhel ruahnak i dokalhnak, ataktak ral i tuk si loin i doh peng i ral peng‘ mi asi (intense economic political, military, and ideological rivalry between nations, short of military conflict; sustained hostile political policies and an atmosphere of strain between opposed countries). Soviet Union cu 1991 ah a kehkuai i East Europe ram hna ah fak piin democracy thanphorhnak a chuah i Soviet Union pi zong adih.
Vawlei pi ah Cold War um ti lai lo, ram khat le ram khat pehtlai nak chawleh nak a tha chinchin cang i Vawlei pi zong daihnak lei a panh chinchin cang tiin ram hruai tu hna nih an ruah. A si nain Communist ram a si mi Tuluk ram cu 1980 hnu in duhsa te in ram rum le ram thancho mi ah a hung cang i US le nitlak Democracy ram hna a zuamcawh tu ram ah a hung cang.
Tuluk Communist acozah zumhtlak asi lo nak hna cu duhsah te in US le Western ram hna nih an theihnak le an ngiahnak cu a sau pah ko cang nain Cold War II aa thawk cang timi biafang cu an hrial deuh rih. A si nain, 2018 kum ah Vice President Mike Pence nih Hudson Institute ah Trump acozah nih Tuluk ram cungah a hmuh ning/ apehtlai ding ning “Trump administration’s approachto China” speech a chim mi ah “First Cold War hnu in hmuh bal lo mi tiangin US thawngnak cu Tuluk dir hnawh/ or doh dingah a herh nak kipah hman asi lai” tiin a chim. Cu hnu cun Historians le Academics le Vawlei Geopolitics thil cuanh thiam a si mi Walter Russell Mead, Robert Kaplan, Niall Ferguson le Henry Kissinger hna nih US vs China Cold War cu aa thok cang tiin an chim.
Robert Zoellick (a former World Bank president) le Richard Haass (President of the Council on Foreign Relations) hna nih cun US le China cu Cold War kan si cang tiah kan ti ahcun Chinese Communist Party nih Western Democracy ram hna he kan i ral, Western ram hna hi a kan ral tu, a kan doh tu an si tiin propaganda an tuah mi a tlingter tu kan si lai an ti.
May thla lio ah China Foreign Minister Wang Yi nih US politician pawl nih US le China kar ah Cold War si dingin nan i zuam tiin a mawhchiat.
Kan duh zong duh lo zong ah Cold War cu aa thok ko cang. Nitlak ram (Western countries) hna le Tuluk ram pehtlainak (relationship) ah i Zumhnak (Trust) a um ti lo. Cu izumh lonak cu Covid zawtnak nih a fehter chin.
Alan Dupont (chief executive of the Cognoscenti Group and a nonresident fellow at the Lowy Institute) nih “US le China cu Vawlei cung ah huham ngei bik sinak caah an i zuamcawh mi asi (contest for global supremacy)” ati. Tuluk President Xi Jinping hruai mi Chinese Communist Party nih a zulh mi Foreign Policy hi Second World War hnu in Joseph Stalin (Soviet hruai tu) nih a hman mi Bayonet (Meithal acung bik ih bunhmi namtong) Foreign policy he aa lo a ti. Cu Bayonet (namtong) cu Western mi or ralmi taksa ah sawh khawh chung in sawh ding (pahchih ding), cu taksa cu thir (steel) ah a cang hnu lawng ah ngol ding ti a si. Cu lio ah West Berlin cu Western hna caah thir (steel) bantuk a dir mi a rak si. A tu ah Berlin bantukin Tuluk bayonet a dirkam tu cu Hong Kong le Tai Wan a si tiin a tahchun.
China watcher Elizabeth Economy’s nih a hmuhning cu President Xi nih “constitutional democracy, human rights, academic freedom (fimcawnnak zalongnak), judicial independence (Biaceihnak zalongnak) le Media zalongnak (freedom of Press) hna hi Tuluk ram caah tihnung or thihphaih tu (fundamental threats) tiin a hmu” tiah a ti.
Tuluk bayonet (namtong) cu hriamnam le ralkap thazang lawng si loin, nawnnok nak(aggressive diplomacy, sophisticated disinformation campaigns, media manipulation, subversion, financial inducements, theft of intellectual property, lawfare, coercion and the use of economic and military pressure for strategic purposes) hna a si.
Trump i “American First” policy le America mipi nih Tuluk ram hmuhning lungput ai thleng cuahmah ve. Trump le Joe Biden hna cu Tuluk ram kong ah na derthom tuk tiin pakhat le pakhat an i soi veve. Joe Biden nih a tei hmanhah China ram he pehtlai in US dirhmun cu ai thleng tuk lailo ti nak a si.
A kih mi ral (Cold War) tiin auh mi zong hi a ling mi ral (Hot War) or ral i tu taktak mi hrial khawhnak lam a si. Zei ah ti ahcun USA siseh China siseh ral i tuk taktak ding an duh veve lo. Dwight Eisenhower’ (Former US President) nih “Ral tei kho nak ding lam pakhat cu ral thoh lo dingin kham ding” ti a si. 1957 ah Eisenhower’ niha chim chap mi cu “Cold War cu ralkap/ hriamnam țhawnnak he doh ding, asinain vawlei pi nih Communist pawl nakin a țha deuhmi an si ti in kan mah lei ah an i tel duh nakding in um ding” a ti.
Christopher Clerk nih “Cold War tiin kan auh ruangah ralpi taktak a chuak lai lo tinak a si hlei lo. Theih lo kar ah Ralpi he kan i tawn kho (it is possible, unconsciously, to stumble into a conflict” tiin ‘The Sleep Walker’ timi a cauk ah a țial.
Mike Gallagher (Republican representative for Wisconsin’s 8th congressional district) nih THE WALL STREET JOURNAL ah “China he Cold War kan i do cang tiin America politician hna le mipi nih kan theih kan pom ding hi thil țha a si. Zeicatiahcun, timhtuahnak le palhmi remhnak lam a si. China nih a kan zuamcawhnak le a kan dohnak a sau tuk cang ko nain America ram nih zeihmanh a si lo bantukin kan i umternak a sau tuk cang. Cutin thil a si komi cu al (deny) i sungh (defeated) nakin cohlan i tei a țha deuh saumau” tiin a țial.
Tuluk ralbawi Colonel Qaio Liang le Colonel Wang Xiangsui nih an chuahpimi theory cu “Raltuknak hmunhma ai thleng cang, ralkap pawl i kah i tuknak hmun timi a um ti lo. Mipi khuasaknak hrimhrim hi raltuknak hmun a si cang. Minung khuasaknak vialte hi a kenkip in doh, nawnnok le dohnak cu hriamnam le thazaang vialte hmang in ral cungah tuah a si te lai. Hmunkip ah raldoh a si lai caah ralkap le mipi kar ah a òhentu (barrier) a um ti lai lo. Raltuknak hmun cu rel cawk a si lai lo: pawngkam, chawlehnak, nungphung, chawva, upadi in action lak tehna an i tel lai.”
Cold War I cu US vs Soviet Union a si i Soviet Union nih US le US he ai kawmmi ram (allies: NATO, ANZUS, JAPAN, etc..) hna he Nuclear weapons in aa zuamcawh khaw nain, fimthiamnak le sipuazi le a dandang țhanchonak le lamthar sial (strategic) lei in a zuamcawh kho lo, tamtuk in an i thlau caah kum saupi a zuamcawh kho lo i Cold War1 cu America le Allies pawl nih teinak an hmu. Asinain, Tuluk cu Soviet Union bantukin ram komh in a dirmi a si lo caah fawibai in țhencheu ding hi a si khawh lo hlei ah China cu ram rum sinak le țhanchonak ah US a zuamcawh khomi le kum zeimaw ahcun US nakhmanh in ram rum deuh ram țhawng deuh a si khomi ram a si.
Cold War I lio cu US le Soviet Union kar ah pakhat le pakhat i pehtlaihnak, thil serchuahținak a um lem lo ruangah i ral le i doh, i khenkham (Sanction or Trade ban) duh paoh in tuah khawh a si. Asinain, US le China cu Trade le Economy ah pakhat le pakhat an i pehtlai (interdependent), an țuanți mi a tamtuk caah khenkham (sanction) tuah ding le phihkhar (block) tuah ding hi thil fawimi a si ti lo. Tuah ahcun a tuahtu zong tuar ve ding dirhmun an phan.
1990 hnu hrawngah nitlaklei democracy ram pawl nih ruahnak (ideology) cu aa khat lomi China ram hi a țhancho ve i an mipi hna an rum deuh ahcun vawlei pi an cul lai, khua an cuan thiam deuh lai i an ram ah zalonnak le democracy lei an panh deuh lai timi ruahchannak nganpi an rak ngei. Cu ruahchannak in Tuluk ram ah chawva-phumnak (investment) tam lak te an tuah, bawmhnak tam lak an pek, a țhangcho liomi ram (developing country) tiin a kenkip in duhning zulhnak (concession)an rak pek. Chawlehnak le pawngkam rawhral kong tbk. le a dangdang ah zulhphung niam deuh in an cohlan hna. Cu nihcun China ram mipi țhanchonak fakpi a chuahter.
China nih a ram ah thil serchuahnak (manufacturing facility) a tuahmi ram sin paoh in fim an cawng, an fir i duhsa tein technology lei in a zuamcawh cang hna.
Globalization le free trade timi idea a laar chinchin. Cu nih cun Global supply chain timi a hrin. Global supply chain timi cu tahchunhnak ah US i Boeing Company vanlawng cu US ram ah an ser ko nain, a chung ummi thilri (parts) tampi cu ram tampi nih ser cio a si (Australia, China, Korea, Japan, India etc.). Tuluk ram ah production line (sehzung) ngan pipi ser nakding le ramdang ah kuat chinnak lam le sul (logistic infrastructure)țha taktak an ngeih hlei ah rianțuan thiammi (skill worker) tampi an um, lakhah zong tampi a niam deuh ruangah US, Japan, Europe, Singapore le Australia pawl nih an ram ummi sehzung cu China ram ah an țhial viar i China cu vawlei pi sehzung bantuk ah aa cang. Covid-19 a chuah tikah hitin ram pakhat ah thil ser dih mi a țhatlonak fiang tein hmuh a hong si. A bik in zawtnak țhalo asiloah tlangrai runvennak thilri (PPE =Personal Protective Equipment) pawl hi nitlak ram pawl nih anmah ram ah ser ti loin Tuluk ram ah an ser ca ah thil poi ngai ah a hong cang.
May thla ah Trump nih “China he pehtlaihnak vialte ka chah (cut off) khawh, $ 500 billion ka save lai” a timi cu China Foreign Minister nih, “cu bantuk Cold War ruahnak le sungzatlak vevenak ruahnak cu kaltak ko law,” tiah a leh. An pahnih in sungh veve ding an si. Todd Mariano (director of political risk consultancy Eurasia Group’s U.S. politics coverage) nih “US le China sipuaizi (Trade and Economy) țemțawnnak (intertwined) hi chikkhat ah phoih khawh dingmi a si lo, an kaa in an chim sawhsawh” tiah a țial.
Vawleipi nih China ram ah chawphumnak (investment) tuah in Global supply chainle free trade tiin an au pi i cu ruahnak nih cun China lawng si loin vawlei pi ca hrimhrim zong ah miaknak le țhanchonak tampi a chuahpi lio ah atu ning in kan kal peng ahcun China a rum deuh lai i, nitlak ram le democracy ram hna caah zuamcawhtu ral ah an i chuah te lai tiin John Mearsheimer (University of Chicago political scientist) nih The Tragedy of Great Power Politics timi capar ah ‘China lianhnak nih daihnak a chuahpi lai lo’(The rise of China will not be peaceful at all) tiin a luancia kum 20 lioah a rak țial. Aho mifim hmanh nih cu theory cu an rak pom lo. Cu lio mi tam-u ruahnak cu China nih Globalism a pom deuh lai i phungning tein a kalmi vawlei pi he rem tein aa kom te ko lai (The more China embraced global capitalism, the more likely it would integrate peacefully in the rules- based international order) ti hi a rak si.
Atu cu US le Nitlak ram hna nih China lawnglawng rinh in thil serchuah hi ram humhimnak caah òihnung a si zia le ralring tein investment le thil tuah ding a si zia an fiang cang. 2018 kum in Australia acoza nih 5-G network ah Huawei tel lo dingin a kham. US zong nih a kham. US request nakin Huawei Finance Director Meng Wanzhou (Huawei Founder Ren Zhengfei fanu a si) cu Canada nih an tlaih. US nih pressure a pek i UK zong nih a kham vecang. US le Japan le a dang Western ram hna nih an company pawl China ram in țhial ding an ruah/ timhtuah pah cang hna (decoupling). (Huawei le 5 G network kong hi article pakhat òial tlak a si).
A ngaingai ti ahcun China ram nih mah te dir khawhnak policy (self-reliance policy) hi kum saupi an rak i tim cang. Midang fimthiamnak (Western technology le know how) hna a fir, cyber attack a tuah. Atu Covid-19 si ser liomi hmanh atu le atu China nih Cyber attack a tuah hna. Advanced equipment le device ah hmanmi thilri (rare earth) market control a tuah. A dang energy le raw material, ti le rawl zong ramdang bochan le rinh loin mah te dir khawh dingin an i timtuah. Vawlei pi ram tam-u nih mahte dir khawhnak an kawl cio ahcun i runvennak khuaruah (protectionism idea) a chuak țhan lai i vawlei pi òhanchonak dawnkhantu a si sual lai ti hi mi tampi nih an phang ve. (Global supply chain le decoupling kong hi article țial tlak a si).
Soviet Union le Nitlak ram hna cu ideology in an i do (Soviet Union nih Communist ideology a karh ding aa zuam bantukin Nitlak ram hna nih ram kip ah democracy le zalonnak um ding in an zuam ve). Asinain, China nih a zuamcawhmi hna hi Communist ram karhnak a si ti lo. China nih aa timhmi cu Vawleipi ah a òhawng bik le huham ngei bik ram dirhmun phanh a duh. Cu dirhmun phanh khawh nakding ah timhtuahnak tampi (strategic long term plan) a ngei. Hriamnam lei in siseh, rumnak (Economy) lei in siseh, Vawleicung ram tampi hna cung ah khuhchilhnak tuah khawhnak lei in siseh, a ngan bik si ding aa zuam cuahmah lio a si. Chawlehthalnak tawh/huham (Economic clout) tlaih/ngeih nakding ah President Xi nih Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) project a tuah i Vawleicung ram tam lak (120 countries) ah phaisa a cawih hna i lam le sul a sak, investment a tuah. Africa ram a cheu le Indian Pacific ram a cheu hna cu China leiba pek țhan khawh lo dirhmun an phan i, an ram i airport, sea port tehna China kut ah a phan pah cang. Cu hna ram tampi cu a zalong mi ram dirhmun (Sovereign Country) sinak hmanh an thlaupah cang hna. China hruaitu nawl in kumkhua um beh hau dirhmun an phan. China nih a rumnak a țhawnnak (Trade power) hmang in ram hme tete tampi cu nawnnok in siseh hramhram in siseh a tuaitam hna. Mi ramchung ngiatnak (espionage) a phunphun, cyber attack tehna a hman hlei ah ruahnak khuhchilhnak (ideological influence) tuah khawhnak caah ram tampi ah Confucius Center a dirh. Atu ca ka țial lio hrimhrim ah China state actors pawl nih Australia ram i acozah le private company tampi le Universities hna cu cyber attack a tuah cuahmah. Hi tluk level in cyber attack a tuah khotu cu Russia, China le North Korea an si tiin Peter Jenning nih a chim. (Hi kong hi article pakhat țial tlak a si).
Covid hnu in China ram nih South China Sea tikulh pawl i cuhnak kong ah siseh Japan le India kong ah siseh Covid zawtnak chuahkehnak kong vawleipi huap (International body) nih hlathlai ding tiin biatung a dirhtu Australia ram kong ah siseh a hraang chinchin (More aggressive and intolerance foreign policy). China ram cung ah vawleipi nih hmuhning hi chiatlei (negative) a panh ngaingai cang. Jens Stoltenberg (NATO Secretary General) nih China nih nawnnoknak (bullying and coercion) policy a hman tuk caah China he pehtlai in European security policy kan remh a herh tiin a chim.
Tuluk acozah nih a hmanmi tactic pakhat cu Misinformation (mipi kha a diklo mi thawng thanh in influence tuah) hi a si. Ca ka țial lio hrimhrim ah international media hna ah Tuluk acozah minung nih min a phunphun in an lut i vuahdah karhternak (propaganda) an tuah ruangah Twitter nih Tuluk he aa pehtlaimi account 32000 a hlonh (remove). 50 Cent program timi minung pakhat nih online media in acozah vuahdah(propaganda) karhter le thanh, asiloah US le Japan dohnak tuahmi tar (post) chin ahcun 50 Cent (ngamu) pek a si. Cuticun mipakhat zong nih a thongthong in thawng diklo an thanh khawh. Hranhram uknak (aana-sin) pawl nih an hman tawnmi te khi a si ko. Kawlram Ne Win le Khin Ngyunt te chan lio i acoza News ah MOE LONE PYIT MUTTA WADA timi a rel tawnmi le Nargis lio i acozah media pawl nih thil diklo an phuan an thanhmi kha kan theih cio ko lai cu mu.
Tu Kum May 22 ah tuah mi Chinese Communist Party Assembly nih Hong Kong National Security Law an sermi (1stJuly 2020 ni ah an fehter)cungah le China acozah nih Uighur Muslim pawl million in camp ah a khumh mi kong he Trump nih a soiselmi le Five eyes countries a si vemi US, Britain, Canada, Australia le New Zealand hna nih duh lonak an langhter vemi nih remlonak (tension) a zualter chinchin.
“Tuluk ram chung ah acozah thil tuah sualmi le mipi lungtlin lonak a um tik paoh ah America ram chung buainak le meithal i kah sualnak te pawl kong laar ngai in Tuluk media nih an thanh tawn tiah Fang Kecheng (an assistant professor of journalism at the Chinese University of Hong Kong) nih a chim. Stephen Loosley (senior visiting fellow at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney) nih a chimmi cu China Foreign policy cu an ramchung a buai ning kha a langhter lengmang. Chim duhmi cu an ramchung a buai paoh ah Tuluk mipi hna thinglung vaivuanhter dingah ram dang mi he buainak a kawl tawn/ miphun òanhnak kha a hliphlauter i mipi nih acozah tu kha an òanh òhan tawn. Atu hi India, Japan, USA, Australia, Canada le South China sea ummi ram hna he buai ding, i ral ding in ciammam tein a tuah hramhrammi zoh tikah a chunglei in an buai ngai ti hi hngalh khawh a si, a ti.
President Xi Jinping nih China History ah Tuluk ram pi a komh òhan khotu si ding timhlamhnak ngan pi a ngei. “China le Taiwan hi kumkhua in aa òhen ding kan si lo. A lianngan mi Tuluk ram si òhannak caah Taiwan cu Tuluk ram ah a hon i fonh hrimhrim ding a si” tiin 2017 CCP Conference ah a chim.
Chinese Communist Party a chanchan in an chim tawnmi (narrative) cu, “Communist party hi Tuluk miphun le tuanbia a kilkamhtu le ro cotu kan si. Kanmah kan um lo ahcun (Communist Party a um lo ahcun) kan ram aa òhencheu lai, kan ram a tlau lai, kan miphun a tlau lai” ti hi a si. (Kawl ralkap pawl he an i lo pah). President Xi nih a chim tawnmi cu “Tuluk ram ram lianngan si kho lo dingin ram leng in a kan domi hna he kan i doh cuahmah lio a si (struggle with external powers wanting to stop China’s “great national rejuvenation)” ti a si. Asullam cu, mipi nih acozah dirpi nakding ah ral an herh, ral an kawl. Hi policy in an kal cuahmah lio a si i hnu ah an i mer òhan kho ti men lai lo, tiin Peter Jennings (Executive director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute and a former deputy secretary for strategy in the Defence Department) nih a chim. A rum deuh/hmuhnak kau deuh cangmi Tuluk mipi party pakhat (one party system) tang ah lungtling tein (dai tein) uk khawh peng ding cu a fawimi a si lo. Communist ram an si ko nain, politically cu one party Communist system an si ko nain Sipuazi ahcun Capitalism in ram an uk. Cu policy ruangah kum 40 chung (the longest economic expansion) an òhangcho i mipi 800 million sifak mi dirhmun in a chanhchuah khawh hna. Credit pek ding an si ko. Tukum May thla ah tuahmi CCP Assembly ah Premier Li Kejang nih Tuluk mipi 600 million hi sifak mi in an luat fangfang (just above poverty line) tiin a chim. Party pakhat tang ah zalong tein chimrelnak um loin khuasak cu a har tuk. Lungtlin lonak langhternak le acozah nawl ngeitu hna phuah khawh le thlen khawhnak (mechanism) um lomi acozah tang ah khuasah a har tuk zia cu Ne Win le Khin Ngyunt uknak tang a rak um balmi nih kan theih dih cio ko lai. Cu ruangah mipi thinlung laak nakding ah ramdang hna he buainak cu an tuah/an sermi hi a si.
US le China kar ah mei-alh a chuahter kho tu ding bik cu Taiwan ram kong le South China sea kong hi a si. South China sea ah a ummi tikulh pawl kong he pehtlai in Philippine, Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei, Indonesia, Taiwan ram hna he buainak an ngei. Buainak a ummi Tikulh hna ah hramhram in ralkap umnak a sermi kong in Philippines nih vawleicung biaceih zung ah taza a cuai. Vawleicung biaceihnak a simi “Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague, Netherlands” nih Philippines a teiter ko mi zong zei te ah a rel lo. China nih a rumnak le chawlehnak (Economic and Trade power) le hriamnam thazaang hmang in a pawngkam ram hna le ram fa deuh tete tampi sinah a cung lei in nawnnok le hramhram in thil a tuahnak hi a saupah cang. Japan he an i cuhmi tikulh kong zong ah China nih kaar hlannak faak deuh in a tuah caah atu le atu an buai cang. Chinese Communist Party nih the South China sea cu kan ram a si tiin an thanhmi an chirhchan cu “Nine-Dash Line” timi 1947 kum ah President Chiang Kai-shek nih a sue mi document [a documentdrawn up by the Kuomintang under President Chiang Kai-shek] a si. A hnu ahcun China nih hihi Tang dynasty chan in kan ram a si cang tiin an ti diam.
South China Sea hi Vawlei ram kip caah zalong tein tlonlen le umkal khawhnak hmun (International water) a si komi cu China nih keimah ta tiin control tuah a timh. Indo-China, South Pacific region hi vawlei pi chawlehnak lam (major trade line) a si i vawlei pi nih zalong tein hman khawh peng ding a si nakhnga US nih a kilkamh. US Navy base (sakhan) cu Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippine hna ah an chiah. A herh paoh ah thazaang langhternak ca ah Raltuknak vanlawng phurtu tilawng ngan pipi a umkalter, Japan, Australia navy hna pawl he komh in exercise an tuah tawn. US nih Pacific region ah a ummi hi China nih a zapi in a lak lo ding/control a tuah lo ding le balance tuah ding ah a si. June thla dih ah US Navy le Australia Navy nih Guam ah joint exercise an tuah hnik. A ra laimi August 17 ah vawleicung ah a ngan bik mi (maritime warfare exercise, the Rim of the Pacific, or RIMPAC) cu Hawaii ah tuah dingin timh a si. Tukum a dih deng hrawng ah Quad nations a simi US, Japan, India le Australia nih Malabar naval exercises in the Bay of Bengal tuah ding in an i tim fawn. Atu ca ka òial lio (Mid June 2020) lio ahhin China le India cu an ramri kong ah fak piin an buai, India ralkap 20 an thi.
Indo-Pacific region ah power balance tuah dingin US cu a biapi tuk hringhran. US lawng si loin middle power a simi regional power pawl India, Japan, South Korea, Australia le Indonesia pawl zong nih zapi thatnak (common interest) a simi China kham khawh ding/doh khawh ding caah an òanòi a herh fawn. Hi ram hna pakhat cio nih an duhmi an i khat, cucu China nih Indo- Pacific (a bik in South China sea) ah control tuah kho hlah seh timi a si. (Hi kong hi article pakhat òial tlak a si)
China nih nawnnoknak in dirkamhtu ding ah US hawikom (allies) hna nih US kan herh lio bik caan ah Trump i “America First Policy” ruangah International affairs in US aa zukphiak (withdraw) mi nih China a lung a nganter chinchin. Cu zong cu a palh ve lonak cu a um ve. NATO allies pawl nih anmah lei thawhvo thawh loin US lawnglawng an rinh caah a si. Asia-Pacific ah middle power a si mi India, Japan, Australia, South Korea le Indonesia hna zong nih US lawnglawng rinh loin òan an lak ve le thazang an chuah ve cang ding a si.
Covid ruangah US le Nitlak ram pawl an buai lioah Tuluk cu Hong Kong, Taiwan le South China Sea i a ummi tikulh pawl lak òhan ding ah a buai salam, caanòha a la kan ti ko lai cu.
Kum saupi Tuluk acozah vuadah (propaganda) aupitu nih “China’s Peaceful Rise” idea cu an aupi peng i vawlei pi hi a liannganmi China nih hruaimi Asian caan (Asian century) a phan te lai. Cucaah “Tuluk ram hi Ram lianngan a si lai caah, Tuluk he i komh ding a si” tiin an aupi. Asinain, nai te ah Asia’s future for the journal Foreign Affairs ah Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong nih “Asian Century a phan hrimhrim lai tinak a si lo. US le Tuluk pehtlaihnak thil sining nih Vawlei pi kong ruah ding tampi a chuahter,” a ti.
Atu i Vawlei pi nih kan buai pimi Cord War II hi China nih “peaceful rise” le “win-win” timi hi dirpi peng seh law cu kan hrial khawh ko hnga, tiah Alan Dupont (chief executive of the Cognoscenti Group) nih a chim.
Atulio vawlei pi thlihran le Geopolitics a cuantu scholar pawl nih thil 3 a si kho tiin an hmuh.
1. US hi vawlei pi hruaitu dirhmun in a òumchuk lai i China nih a hmunhma a laak te lai. US le Europe cu Covid ruangah an buai tuk lioah China nih virus a control khawh i, cucu hmang in Covid a tuarmi ram tampi a bawm khotu dirhmun ah China a dir kho.
2. Covid zawtnak ruangah China cungah vawlei pi nih zumhlonak le duhlonak (negative view on China) a chuak i China huham a zor lai. Tuluk mipi hrimhrim nih Covid zawtnak coza nih a tawlrelnak kong ah mipi lungtlin lonak tampi a chuak i vawlei pi hruaitu dirhmun dir kho ding a si lo zia a lang.
3. 1 & 2 kar ah a si lai. US le China cu Covid ruangah an òumchuk lai i, an ram chung (domestic) kong ah an buai lai. Cu nih cun “Group of Zero” World a chuah ter lai i vawlei pi ah leader taktak um lomi dirhmun kan phan lai.
Cu lakah pa 2 nak khi a si kho bik, G-0 zong a si kho nain China nih vawlei pi hruaitu (Global leader) a chuah ding cu a si kho lo ngai in an hmuh.
Kevin Rudd (former Prime Minister of Australia) nih cun “Covid ruangah vawlei pi Economy a tla lai i, US le China zong ramchung ramleng ah an derthawm lai. Ramkip komh mi bu vialte a derthawm lai i ram kip nih mah ram miaknak lawnglawng zoh in rianòuannak le chawlehnak ruangah aa ruang in diròinak a zor lai. Cold War II cu a si deuh rih lo Cold WAR 1.5 a si” tiin Foreign Affiars article ah a òial.
President Xi Jinping nih 2014 kum ah Australian parliament ah bia a chim lioah “Raltuknak le buainak nih Tuluk mipi ca ah òhatnak a chuahpi bal lo. Tuluk ram cu a ngan ko lai nain, ral a thomi/ ral a duhmi cu zeitluk a ngan zong ah a donghnak cu a tla ko, timi hi kan pupa hna nih kum 2000 lio in an rak fiang cang” tiin a chim. A chim banktukin in hei si taktak seh law cu vawlei pi ca ah a țha tuk hnga.
References:
1. Greg Sheridan (Foreign Editor); “China sees no room for autonomy in its pervasive ideology”. The Australian.
2. Kevin Rudd (President of the Asia Society Policy Institute and a former Prime Minister of Australia), “US- China decoupling is more rhetoric than fact–for now” NIKKEI Asian Review.
3. Stephen Loosley (senior visiting fellow at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney); “COLD WAR FOLLOWS COVID’S FOOTSTEPS”
4. Alan Dupont (chief executive of the Cognoscenti Group and a
nonresident fellow at the Lowy Institute); “CHINA’S RISE NOT AS CERTAIN AS THEY’D HAVE US BELIEVE”; Centre for Independent studies.
5. Humphrey Hawksley (former BBC China Bureau Chief): “Asian Waters; The Struggle Over the Indo-Pacific and the Challenge to American Power”.
6. Paul Kelly (Editor at-Large); “WORLD FEELS CHILL OF A NEW COLD WAR”, The Australian.
7. Tom Switzer (executive director of the Centre for Independent Studies); “The rise of China will not be peaceful at all”
8. Mike Gallagher (the Republican representative for Wisconsin’s 8th congressional district); Leaders must keep cool to avoid new cold war getting hot, The Wall Street Journal.
9. Peter Jennings (executive director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute and a former deputy secretary for strategy in the Department of Defence); “China has shown its true colours to the world” The Australian.
10. Robert Zoellick (Former World Bank President); The Wall Street Journal.
11.Peter Jennings; Canberra braces, refuses to blink as Beijing bullies region closer to the brink; The Australian; 21 June 2020
12. James Stavridis (Admiral, 16th Supreme Allied Commander of NATO); World Cannot ignore Chinese Aggression in South China Sea; NIKKEI Aisan Review; 30 May 2020
Notes: Current affairs pawl a si i ka tial hnu in Muko a chuah hlan thil tampi a cang lai, ai thleng mi zong a um ko lai.
Reference hi a zapi òial ahcun a tamtuk lai caah mah lawng hi ka langhter.
